What exists
The Delphic Source-Change Expected-Effect System is a protected method for deciding which eligible change, if any, is worth testing against a measured AI-position gap.
It does not begin with a list of generic content improvements. It requires a defined question family, a defensible baseline, an attainable-potential view, a source-gap diagnosis and an approved disclosure line.
| Record field | Public description |
|---|---|
| Owner | Delphic |
| Unit assessed | One source component, one measured question family and one named AI-position outcome |
| Required evidence | Baseline, attainable headroom, diagnosed changeable gap, disclosure approval and relevant prior evidence where it exists |
| Output | A bounded treatment hypothesis with expected direction, confidence and remeasurement requirement, or a Hold decision |
| Verification | Comparable post-treatment measurement against the pre-recorded hypothesis |
| Intended use | Choosing the smallest source change worth testing without presenting prediction as proof |
This record confirms the expected-effect system and its operating boundary. It does not disclose the comparison method.
What this record establishes
Different gaps imply different possible changes. A source that is inaccessible presents a different problem from one that is available but poorly matched to the question. A source with insufficient visible evidence presents a different problem from a firm whose rival has a structural authority advantage.
The public source-gap diagnosis narrows those possibilities. Potential establishes whether meaningful headroom appears attainable. Treatment selection requires the smallest testable response supported by the evidence and permits a Hold decision.
The expected-effect system sits between diagnosis and the final treatment decision. It compares eligible source changes against the measured gap, target outcome, disclosure boundary and relevant prior evidence. Its result is a hypothesis with a stated direction and confidence—not a causal conclusion and not a guarantee.
The system is specific to the question family, source state, outcome and evidence available. A change that appeared useful under one set of conditions is not automatically transferable to another.
Access and verification
Application begins only when the upstream evidence is sufficient to define a testable problem. Delphic records the intended source component, proposed change, target outcome, expected direction, confidence and evidence basis before implementation.
The client can inspect that treatment hypothesis and approve, reject or defer the change. After implementation, the same measurement standard is used to determine what was subsequently observed.
Remeasurement can support, weaken or leave the hypothesis unresolved. The result returns to the treatment and market records so later decisions can use observed evidence rather than rewriting the prediction after the fact.
What remains protected
The public record does not disclose the complete treatment set, the matching of source components to evidence gaps, the comparison of prior outcomes, the estimation of likely effect or uncertainty, or the rules that prefer one eligible change over another.
Those elements are the protected expected-effect system. The page makes the method's existence, scope, prerequisites, output, limitations and verification path legible without giving away the knowledge required to reproduce the recommendation.